分析師擬制性盈餘之盈餘預測能力及其證券評價攸關性實證研究
Other Title
Implications of Analysts Street Earnings for Future Profit
Predictability And Equity Valuation
Predictability And Equity Valuation
Date Issued
2004
Date
2004
Author(s)
葉疏
DOI
922416H002024
Abstract
Using the Ohlson (1995, 1999) valuation model, we examine whether there are
differences in abnormal earnings forecasting ability and valuation implications of the
various earnings components comprising GAAP income, analyst Street earnings numbers, and operating income. We do this by estimating sets of separate industry
earnings forecasting and valuation regressions permitting separate coefficients for
abnormal GAAP income and non-operating income, for abnormal GAAP income and
non-Street earnings, and for abnormal operating earnings and operating income minus analyst Street earnings numbers. Findings indicate there is benefit to decomposing GAAP income. In
particular, abnormal operating earnings and abnormal Street earnings are forecasting and valuation relevant. However, non-operating earnings is essentially forecasting
irrelevant and value irrelevant, and non-Street earnings is value irrelevant despite being somewhat forecasting relevant. Thus, although abnormal operating earnings
and abnormal Street earnings are essential for forecasting future profitability and
hence valuation, non-operating earnings and non-Street earnings behave similarly to
transitory earnings components in that the former have little implication for the firm’s
future earnings potential and current stock valuation, and the latter have little implication for current stock valuation. Reasons for finding that non-Street earnings
is forecasting relevant but value irrelevant are discussed.
Findings also indicate there is benefit to decomposing operating earnings into
abnormal Street earnings and non-Street operating earnings, in that the non-Street
component lacks value relevance, but there is little benefit to decomposing Street
earnings into abnormal operating income and non-operating Street earnings. These
findings suggest that analysts add information over and above that contained in
operating income but operating income possesses no additional information not
already contained in analyst Street numbers.
Subjects
Street earnings
earnings forecasting ability
valuation
Ohlson valuation model
Publisher
臺北市：國立臺灣大學會計學系暨研究所
Type
other
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