Building DRAM Supply and Demand Forecasting Model
Date Issued
2015
Date
2015
Author(s)
Wu, Ya-Ting
Abstract
The thesis is based on the empirical analysis of chronological data of DRAM''s supply, demand and average price as well as the U.S. GDP. Through the empirical model, it seeks to understand the reasons behind the DRAM price changes. The thesis constructs a DRAM price trend model based on sufficiency ratio, industry structure, macroeconomics factors and items for deviation adjustments. Moreover, as the IT industry demand transitions from PC-dominated applications to be driven by Mobile Devices and Cloud Computing, it is making DRAM''s application even more complicated. These factors also have significant changes to the sufficiency ratio and average selling price. In Chapters 3 and 4 of this thesis, the historic model is strengthened, attempted by introducing more variances. After the feasibility has been proven, this is the first time that the proven methodology is incorporated into the 2015 forecast. Lastly, some recommendations are provided for the future researchers, based on my personal understanding of the DRAM industry. It also includes the analysis of the current competitive landscape and product analysis to arrive at a projection of the future changes of the industry structure.
Subjects
DRAM
Supply Demand Forecast
Type
thesis