The Financial Risk Analysis of Taiwan High Speed Rail
Date Issued
2006
Date
2006
Author(s)
Lin, Kuo-cheng
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
The construction of Taiwan High Speed Rail is the biggest Building -Operation-Transfer case in the world. The Taiwanese government has granted the Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation a 35-year period of construction and operation. The research project is based on former studies concerning Taiwan High Speed Rail and risks of high speed rail, and compares the current situation of Taiwan High Speed Rail with the operational results of foreign high speed rail companies and analyzes all the potential risks Taiwan High Speed Rail may encounter in the future.
The research findings are as follows:
1. The sales quantity risk level of Taiwan High Speed Rail is medium. Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation estimates the number of passengers in the first year of operation is around 148,000. Passengers traveling shorter distances tend to choose other methods of transportation.
2. The sales price risk level is also medium. According to the basic rate of 3.459 NT dollars per passenger-kilometer, the ticket price of a Taiwan High Speed Rail direct ride from Taipei to Kaohsiung approximates NT 1,299, which is between the price of going by plane and by train. To passengers who are used to take a coach or train this will give the impression that the price of Taiwan High Speed Rail is high.
3. However, the production variable cost risk level is higher. Taiwan High Speed Rail belongs to the highly labor-dense industry, so the salary expenses will be high.
4. On the other hand, the operating leverage risk level of Taiwan High Speed Rail is extremely high because High Speed Rail has high fixed cost and high sunk cost.
5. Likewise, the financial leverage risk level is also extremely high. Taiwan High Speed Rail has to pay back huge loans and interest and has difficulty increasing the revenue at the very beginning of operation. Therefore, the financial burden is quite heavy.
Subjects
BOT（興建、營運、移轉）
銷售數量風險
銷售價格風險
生產變動成本風險
營運槓桿風險
財務槓桿風險
Taiwan High Speed Rail
Building-Operation-Transfer
Sales Quantity Risk
Sales Price Risk
Production Variable Cost Risk
Operating Leverage Risk
Financial Leverage Risk
Type
other
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