行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告:淡水河流域水資源乾旱預警機制與風險管理策略之建立─總計畫暨子計畫:淡水河流域水資源乾旱預警機制與風險管理策略之建立(I)
Date Issued
2005
2005-07-31
Date
2005
2005-07-31
Author(s)
劉佳明
DOI
932625Z002016
Abstract
For the past two years, the northern Taiwan has been attacked by serious
drought events. The shortage of water resource is highly related to the climate
variability. Thus, the reliable whether prediction, which could be applied detect the
possibly coming drought events, can help to make early warning and risk
management strategies for reducing the impact from droughts. Currently, the most
popular method to define the drought is based on the amount of rainfall or the
continuous non-rainfall days. The water resource systems, however, must take both
supply and demand into account. It will be unbalanced and incomplete if only using
the rainfall definition for the drought. Therefore, the purpose of this project is to
define the drought from integrated water resource system through the combination of
all sub-projects, and establish the drought early warning and risk management system.
The drought early warning and risk management system is proposed to include
three components: weather forecast, water resources system simulation and
decision-making analysis. In this year, historical weather data represent perfect
forecasts and are used to simulate and optimize management strategies. In water
resources system, potential drought events can be predicted through a system
dynamics model. The drought management strategies include transferring water from
agricultural sector, supplement water supply from groundwater, others. Optimizing
the strategy of transferring agricultural water uses is the main task of the project in
this year. In the next two years, the drought early warning and risk management
strategies will be built with combining all data of demand and supply from other
sub-projects.
Subjects
Climate Forecast
Drought
Early Warning
Risk Management
Publisher
臺北市：國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所
Type
report
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