Risk Analysis for Agriculture Drought
Date Issued
2006
Date
2006
Author(s)
Chang, Hsiao-Hui
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
Although with abundant water resources, Taiwan suffers from frequent drought due to uneven distribution of precipitation and stream flows in temporal and spatial aspects and the keen competitions among water use sectors. Fallow strategies are the mostly used measure for short term drought relief so that agricultural water supplies are reallocated to other sectors as domestic and industrial during drought period. Not much attention was paid to the demand sides even in the long term water resource planning.
Special attention was directed to the demand sides for drought risk planning in this thesis research to identify the agricultural drought risk for its frequency, severity, and spatial distribution. Because regional drought risk patterns will be changed by different water resource management schemes, different drought allocation schemes were evaluated in this research for better adoption to the drought. The drought potential maps can be used for drought risk assessment and management.
Chia-Nan Region in southern Taiwan was chosen as the study area. The water demand and supply information for this region was compiled into the Linear Programming model for water managements and drought allocations. Three different drought allocation strategies as water use efficiencies and equities for water shortage in different spatial units were studied. These strategies were evaluated by the drought impact indices that take into account of the scale and spatial distribution of the water shortages. The agricultural drought potential maps were then created using the best performed drought allocation scheme.
The drought allocation scheme base on the water use efficiency and considering the water shortage equity among larger spatial units is found to be one of best performance. The drought potential maps derived under this drought allocation scheme show the first crop of paddy has higher drought risk than that of the second crop. Most of areas with high drought risk potential are located in paddy farming area. The regional drought risk may be attenuated through the adjustment of the cropping patterns.
Subjects
乾旱管理
乾旱風險評估
休耕
乾旱調配模式
Drought management
Drought risk assessment
Fallow
Agricultural drought potential analysis
Drought allocation model
SDGs
Type
thesis
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