The Potential Economic Impact of Avian Flu Pandemic on Taiwan
Date Issued
2007
Date
2007
Author(s)
Wong, Chen-Yuan
DOI
en-US
Abstract
This study analyzes the potential economic consequences of an outbreak of the avian influenza (H5N1) on Taiwan’s macro-economy and individual sectors. Because of the considerable uncertainty about the severity of the disease and with great concern of the world, we review all the domestic and foreign studies on the impact evaluation of the avian flu to construct the outbreak scenarios. The experience with the 2003 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, SARS) outbreak also provide the exposure data about how and to what extent to which an outbreak affects national economic activities. The information of the amount of deaths, hospitalizations, and outpatient visits can be provided by the software designed by the Center for Disease Control of the United States under alternative assumptions of the infection rate and mortality rate. Following the SARS experience, the pandemic also forces many workers to stay home, affects consumers’ confidence and changes consumption behavior. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to simulate the possible damage brought by lowering domestic consumption, production, export, and labor demand.
The simulation results indicates that if the disease is confined within the poultry sector, then the impact on real GDP is around -0.01%~-0.09% where or labor demand is -0.02~-0.15%. Once it becomes a human-to-human pandemic, the CGE analysis, which allows for resource mobility and substitutions through price adjustments, predicts that the real GDP and labor demand would contract by 2.39%~3.83% and 1.25%~1.49%, respectively. As for the individual sector, the outbreak not only damages the poultry sector and its upstream and downstream industries, but also affects the service sectors including wholesale, retail, transportation, hotels, and healthcare services.
Subjects
禽流感
可計算一般均衡模型
生產面衝擊
醫療資源運用
總體經濟影響
產業損失
服務業
Avian Flu
CGE
FluAid
FluSurgevHospital Resource
Economic Impact
SDGs
Type
thesis
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