Seismic Safety Assessment of Earth Dam

Summery

On 21 september 1999,Ji-ji occur an earthquake,measured 7.2 on the moment magnitude scale,which cause severe damage on many dams.People concern Dam's safety a lot,so the research about seismic safety evaluation of a reservoir is urgent.
In recent seismic safety evaluation of a reservoir,we mainly use pseudo-static analysis,which use a safety factor to represent a dam's safety.But actually,the risk and uncertainty in any construction is inevitable.So,in the paper,we plan to use risk analysis to evaluate seismic safety of a reservoir and try to get better method of seismic safety evaluation of a reservoir.
In the paper,we take Shi-Men dam as a example,and use concept of event tree.To consider the uncertainty of earthquake,we use seismic risk analysis;to consider destruction,we calculate slide quantity.Finally,we can use the relation between slide quantity and probability of detroyed degree to calculate the year-probability of different detroyed degree of a dam.
After the research,we know the year-probability of different detroyed degree of a dam.This method is more meaningfal than pseudo-static analysis,and can be a major consultation when government want to make a risk policy or insurance company want to consider the seismic risk of reservoir.