TFT LCD 產業研究 暨 供需模型分析
A STUDY ON TFT LCD INDUSTRY ANALYSIS AND GLOBAL SUPPLY-DEMAND MODELLING
Date Issued
2004
Date
2004
Author(s)
Lin, Yu-Ming
DOI
en-US
Abstract
Supply-demand forecasting is the groundwork for industry analysis and security analysis. However, accuracy is hard to achieve given the range of internal and external variables that affect industries and markets. The objective of this thesis is two-fold: firstly, to provide a deeper understanding of the market structure, conduct and performance (SCP) of the Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display (TFT LCD) industry, and secondly, to provide dynamic end-demand forecasts (from 2004-2010) and supply estimates (from 2004-2005) for this new technology by building a supply-demand model through the application of innovation diffusion theory.
This research posits several finding.
1. TFT LCD is a highly competitive industry. Less concentrated market structure and product homogeneity will lead to intensify price cut during a cyclical downturn. Majority of cost savings by migrating to advanced technology are passed on to end-users. Only firm-specific cost savings via product and process re-design can generate sustainable cost edges.
2. Early mover strategy counts in the industry. A new generation of technology can improve operating margins for a given product by 6-9%. Higher returns on the new fab can be sustained for 2.5 years by roll-outing new products ahead of rivals. TFT LCD companies should try to extend or sustain profitability through continued early stage investment in new technology. Latecomers will face lower prices at launch and should thus generate much lower returns over a shorter time span.
3. TFT LCD’s industry performance should improve in the long run. HII will advance due to higher barrier of entries in terms of technology capability and financial muscle. With the “big getting bigger,” we are likely to see a more concentrated market structure in the future. With TFT LCD’s applications expanding into LCD monitor and LCD TV whose markets are even less concentrated, we expect TFT LCD makers’ bargaining power to improve going forward.
4. TFT LCD demand to rise at a CAGR of 15.8% from 2004-2010. LCD TV is forecast to be growth driver for the industry from 2004-2010 with a CAGR of 68.3%, versus notebook PC’s 9.7% and LCD monitor’s 14.3%.
5. LCD monitor’s diffusion is expected to peak in 2004—eight years after its introduction. This is shorter than CRT monitor’s, which peaked in 1999, more than 20 years after its launch. This result is in line with what Bass’ theory highlighted, that is, the expected demand dynamics can affect the process choice decision.
6. TFT LCD industry is overly optimistic on near term LCD TV demand. Currently, LCD TV buyers treat it as another conventional item to replace their existing TV rather than a “must-buy” good forced by any “technology push”. Availability of alternative technology, such as PDP, will also slow the diffusion speed of LCD TV.
7. Potential oversupply in 2005 is likely due to excess capacity for the LCD TV market. However, a shortage of mother glass and likely delay in new fab rollouts may mitigate 2005 overcapacity to some extent.
Subjects
市場結構
薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器
Bass 理論與模型
LCD顯示器
供給與需求預測
新產品擴散
TFT-LCD
液晶電視
筆記型電腦
Bass Model
Supply-Demand forecast
TFT LCD
Innovation Diffusion
LCD monitor
Notebook PC
Market Structure
LCD TV
Type
thesis
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