Does the Pan-blue Party Always Win? A Spatial Analysis of the Political Geography of Keelung

Because of the particularity of the political geography in Keelung City, this research is to determine the spatial distribution of it. By using the traditional and the spatial analysis, this study tries to find the factors that affect the spatial distribution of the percentage of vote. The percentage of vote comes from 13 elections are the presidential elections, legislator elections, mayor elections and city councilor elections during the period 1995 – 2009, and the data is collected from 157 villages in Keelung.
After comparing the differences of the percentage of vote between pan-blue and pan- green parties, this thesis suggests electoral system, local attribute, spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity of region influence the reason why the percentage of vote changes. Thanks for the help of the traditional and spatial regression model, this research can analyze why and how political geography of Keelung changes more precisely.
This research found that behind the high percentage of vote in pan-blue party, there are many exceptional cases and differences; meanwhile, the percentage of vote in pan-blue party changes from different electoral systems. The significant independent variables are different between the presidential elections, legislator elections, mayor elections and local election model, and the inference of local characteristic doesn’t work in the city councilor elections model. Last but not least, the neighboring and heterogeneity of region both have an effect on the presidential elections, legislator elections, mayor elections model and city councilor elections model.