The development and analysis of the GHGs effects assessment model
Date Issued
2010
Date
2010
Author(s)
Huang, Hui-Fng
Abstract
The aggravated impacts of environment in particular release material emissions and energy by anthropogenic activities: for instance, anthropogenic emissions have been identified as a source of climate change being a serious issue.
The challenge of reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at local and global levels requires behavioral changes in life styles and energy consumption patterns in people, and the use of more energy efficient production, processing and distribution technologies. Own to the multi dimensions such as, economic development, the level of technology, supply/demand of energy, the structure of industry, complex international environment, political states are related to the issues of GHGs effects reducing and climate change.
In dealing with the complex issues of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission and climate change mitigation, many interrelated factors such as cost, level of technology development, supply and demand of energy, structure of industry, and expenditures on research and development exist. Using indicators to monitor environmental impacts, evaluate the efficacies of policies, and regulations has been practiced for a long time; and it can serve as a useful tool for decision making and for comparison between different countries. Although numerous indicators have been developed for relevant subjects, integrated approaches that consider individual changes, dynamic interaction, and mutli-dimensions of indicators are scarce. This paper aimed to develop and analysis the GHGs indicators related climate change and sustainable energy assessment model.
Taiwan is a significant source of global GHGs emissions. A case study, using the developed framework and Taiwan’s actual data of the past two decades, was conducted. The results indicate that regulatory strategies for pollution control are inadequate in terms of ensuring environmental quality, and the nature does not have the capability to revert the impacts from the existing level of pollution. A DPSIR (Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework under the cause-effect chain of GHGs emissions was used to assess the problems. This DPSIR model is mainly related to energy consumption, environmental impacts, and policy responses. Consider the optimal development between economic development and GHGs emissions control, an endogenous growth model to link energy use, relative energy price and GDP, and abatement technologies imposed by government for optimal emission control. Simulations were conducted to develop a structure’s relationship between energy consumption and emission reduction; while parameterization was made with the real data of Taiwan.
The objectives of the paper were: (1) conduct a literature review on the indicators that have been used in GHGs-related studies; (2) develop a DPSIR model that incorporates GHGs-related indicators and evaluate their relationships using a cause-effect chain of GHGs emission; and (3) develop a calculative method that can be used to explain the dynamic correlation among the inter-dependent indicators. The results reveal that: (1) an increase in governmental expenditure in environment pollution abatement will increase the efficiency of emission control, and its economic growth rate will be greater than that of the competitive economy in the long-time; (2) one should consider the elasticity of substitution in energy use will influence the energy demand diminishes as energy expenditure decrease; and (3) the range between elasticity of emission and the elasticity of expenditure for GHGs emission control can be a significant factor in an endogenous growth model. Using cleaner energy or optimizing energy structure could benefit both economic growth and emission control.
Subjects
Greenhouse Effect
Indicator
Cause-Effect Chain
Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response
Endogenous Growth Model
Elasticity
Type
thesis
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