A Study on the Food Security and Food Supply Planning in the Emergency Period in Taiwan
Date Issued
2012
Date
2012
Author(s)
Lin, Tzu-Chiao
Abstract
With the increase of fluctuation in world food demand and supply, the price of food has gone up since 2002, and soared between 2006 and 2008. This has aroused the world wide concerns about the food security issue. With the fluctuation of food price and quantity, food export countries may take export intervention strategies. Therefore, a net food import nation like Taiwan may face a crisis of unable to import the food. This study analyzes literature on food security risks, food security risk management and emergency period food security risk management. Then the study analyzes the food security risks and food security risks management in different types of countries, which are classified according to economic status and agricultural endownment. Since stable food supply in an emergency period is a major concern to Taiwan, the study refers to Lin Kuo-Ching（2011）emergency food supply and demand model, and sets optimistic and pessimistic scenarios in 2020, focusing on the three important variables, including total farm land, per hectare planed area output of each agricultural products and total population. The study composes optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of the three variables into eight different scenarios and conducts the empirical simulation. The results of this empirical simulation are summarized as follows: (1) If an emergency occurred in 2020, all people could obtain the minimum calorie intake (2,000 Kcal) and protein ratio (12％), under the eight circumstances designed in the study. (2) In order to provide food for domestic people to survive and achieve nutrient requirements in an emergency period, the diet composition will be diffirent significantly. (3) Compared with the consumption pattern of Japan during the special period, the consumption pattern in Taiwan is better, including the calories and nutrients basis. According to the simulation result, the policy recommendations made are summarized as follows: (1) Since the model used in this study is based on the farm land, ensuring quantity and quality of the farm land is essential to achieve the the result. (2) In order to understand the relationship between set aside farm land and its productivity, the government should make experiments on set aside farm land to ensure the productivity of the farm land in an emergency. It also suggests that not to set a farm land aside for a long period of time, neither abandon nor discard. The farm land should be maintained in proper management and productivity, so that it can be always ready to put into production. (3) The model used in the study assumes that water resource is certainly acquirable, therefor maintaining water resource and irrigation facility in normal period is indispensable. (4) Since assumptions of the model is domestic productivity will not be affected by climate change or extreme weather in an emergency period, the government should do more detail assessment of natural disaster in an emergency and the relationship between natural disaster and food supply in an emergency to assure the simulation result can be achieved.
Subjects
Emergency Period
Food Security
Food Supply Planning
Minimum Calorie Intake
Type
thesis
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