河川洪水即時預報不確定性之研究
Date Issued
1999
Date
1999
Author(s)
陳明仁
DOI
882218E002041
Abstract
The warning water level of stage
stations are the important index for flood
prevention. During the typhoon period, it
is the key reference for flood prevention
actions that whether the forecasting water
level will or will not reach over the warning
water level. The uncertainties of forecasting
water level are not described by the
determinstic model, so the more precise
information’s are not transmitted to the flood
prevention organizations and even the actions
are then be delay.
The study establish unsteady river
routing numerical model for real time river
water level forecasting. The uncertainties
of upstream boundary discharge and the
downstream boundary water level are
counted and the hourly observed water level
are used for feedback computation of water
level by statistics method. The model
established by this study is provided for river
water level and probabilities forecasting and
the probabilities of the future hourly water
level whether reach over the warning water
level.
Subjects
forecasting
uncertainty
Publisher
臺北市：國立臺灣大學水工試驗所
Type
report
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