Repository logo
  • English
  • 中文
Log In
Have you forgotten your password?
  1. Home
  2. College of Management / 管理學院
  3. International Business / 國際企業學系
  4. A study of Real Estate Bubble Models
 
  • Details

A study of Real Estate Bubble Models

Date Issued
2007
Date
2007
Author(s)
Tsao, Chang-Shen
DOI
zh-TW
URI
http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/60481
Abstract
In recent years, real estate has boomed in most of the world, and in many countries, real estate prices were raised abnormally, whether real estate market is a bubble has becomes a key issue for both governments and contractors. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop models to explore the characteristics of real estate bubbles in the last twenty-six years in Taiwan. This research develops decision models for evaluating a contractors’ risk in handling real estate bubbles. By employing multivariable analysis and CUSUM charts, including both macroeconomic and microeconomic measure. We find that there are 12 macroeconomic principle variables which influence the results of real estate bubbles. And there are 28 microeconomic principle variables which influence the results of real estate. In addition, 23 samples are taken from the construction corporations in Taiwan. The statistical analysis from 6 failure companies and 17 healthy companies is used to identify the significance of financial variables and overcoming the static analysis shortcomings of traditional precautionary models. Then, using the time series analysis of vector Auto-Regressive Moving-Average model (VARMA), it is shown that it is possible to integrate VARAM with the multivariable CUSUM model. The tests of models verify that models are able to interpret the real situation of the contractors’ risk handling decision. In addition, because the CUSUM chart could provide the “Real-time function,” the precision and practicality of the predicting model is increased significantly. The model could be a reference for the financial adjusting strategies in domestic construction companies and further assist governmental policies to regulate and manage the construction industry.
Subjects
房地產
泡沫
累積和管制圖
財務危機
Real estate
bubble
CUSUM Chart
Financial Distress
Type
thesis
File(s)
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name

ntu-96-R92724035-1.pdf

Size

23.31 KB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum

(MD5):6010ae99e36ea25646ad09aa468b0e2a

臺大位居世界頂尖大學之列,為永久珍藏及向國際展現本校豐碩的研究成果及學術能量,圖書館整合機構典藏(NTUR)與學術庫(AH)不同功能平台,成為臺大學術典藏NTU scholars。期能整合研究能量、促進交流合作、保存學術產出、推廣研究成果。

To permanently archive and promote researcher profiles and scholarly works, Library integrates the services of “NTU Repository” with “Academic Hub” to form NTU Scholars.

總館學科館員 (Main Library)
醫學圖書館學科館員 (Medical Library)
社會科學院辜振甫紀念圖書館學科館員 (Social Sciences Library)

開放取用是從使用者角度提升資訊取用性的社會運動,應用在學術研究上是透過將研究著作公開供使用者自由取閱,以促進學術傳播及因應期刊訂購費用逐年攀升。同時可加速研究發展、提升研究影響力,NTU Scholars即為本校的開放取用典藏(OA Archive)平台。(點選深入了解OA)

  • 請確認所上傳的全文是原創的內容,若該文件包含部分內容的版權非匯入者所有,或由第三方贊助與合作完成,請確認該版權所有者及第三方同意提供此授權。
    Please represent that the submission is your original work, and that you have the right to grant the rights to upload.
  • 若欲上傳已出版的全文電子檔,可使用Open policy finder網站查詢,以確認出版單位之版權政策。
    Please use Open policy finder to find a summary of permissions that are normally given as part of each publisher's copyright transfer agreement.
  • 網站簡介 (Quickstart Guide)
  • 使用手冊 (Instruction Manual)
  • 線上預約服務 (Booking Service)
  • 方案一:臺灣大學計算機中心帳號登入
    (With C&INC Email Account)
  • 方案二:ORCID帳號登入 (With ORCID)
  • 方案一:定期更新ORCID者,以ID匯入 (Search for identifier (ORCID))
  • 方案二:自行建檔 (Default mode Submission)
  • 方案三:學科館員協助匯入 (Email worklist to subject librarians)

Built with DSpace-CRIS software - Extension maintained and optimized by 4Science