複合式災害風險評估與韌性調適策略－以磺溪流域為例
Other Title
COMPOUND DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT AND RESILIENCE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES - A CASE STUDY OF THE HUANGXI RIVER BASIN
Journal
中國土木水利工程學刊
Journal Volume
37
Journal Issue
8
Start Page
641
End Page
654
ISSN
1015-5856
Date Issued
2025-12
Author(s)
Abstract
磺溪流域主要位於新北市金山區，地形自大屯火山群延伸至沿海平原，兼具山地與聚落環境，易受複合災害影響。本研究建構漸進式複合災害風險評估框架，整合質化訪談與風險要素問卷，並應用頻率比法崩塌敏感度分析、NTU-CAFIM洪水模擬、橋梁安全檢核及交通可靠度評估。結果顯示，下游聚落為洪水熱區，上、中游丘陵區為高崩塌敏感區，災後旅行時間顯著延長。新磺溪橋於模擬事件中比官方標準提早約50分鐘觸發封橋，展現提前預警能力。社會脆弱度調查亦揭示六股里、三界里及大同里風險最高。最後導入設計失效模式與後果分析及可靠度分析，整合各模組成果並揭示跨系統災害鏈結。本研究展現跨領域方法於流域尺度的應用，為地方防災調適提供科學依據。
The Huangxi watershed in Jinshan District, New Taipei City, extends from the Datun volcanic range to the coastal plain, encompassing both mountainous and settlement environments, and is highly susceptible to compound disasters. This study develops a progressive framework for compound disaster risk assessment by integrating qualitative interviews and risk factor surveys, combined with frequency ratio analysis for landslide susceptibility, NTU-CAFIM-based flood simulations, bridge safety checks, and transportation reliability evaluation. Results indicate that downstream settlements are flood hotspots, while upstream and midstream hills exhibit high landslide susceptibility, and post-disaster travel times increase significantly. In the simulated events, the Xinhuangxi Bridge triggered closure about 50 minutes earlier than the official standard, demonstrating early-warning capability. Social vulnerability surveys further identify Liugu, Sanjie, and Datong villages as the highest-risk areas. Finally, Design Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (DFMEA) and reliability analysis were employed to integrate multi-module outcomes and reveal cross-system disaster linkages. This research demonstrates the applicability of interdisciplinary methods at the watershed scale and provides scientific support for local disaster adaptation strategies.
Subjects
複合式災害
災害風險評估
系統可靠度
compound disasters
disaster risk assessment
system reliability
Type
journal article