Establishment of a Predictive Model for Aquaculture Land Use Change－An Agent-based Approach
Date Issued
2007
Date
2007
Author(s)
Hsieh, Chi-Hsien
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
Land-use/land-cover change (LUCC), the consequence of the interactions between humans and the environment, signifies the living pattern of human activities and the decision-making process involved in such activities. At the local level, land-use decisions are usually restricted and made by land agents. In order to evaluate the effects of various land-use driving forces and to establish a predictive model for LUCC, this project used Ilan’s aquaculture as a case study and survey data. We employed chi-square test, t-test and logistic regression analysis to find driving forces, and discriminant analysis to establish a predictive model. The results of chi-square test, t-test and logistic regression analysis showed the differences in 9 variables that were possible driving forces for the abandonment of aquaculture. These variables could distinguish abandoned farmer and unabandoned farmer efficiently. The results of discriminant analysis showed that factors determining whether land agents abandoned their aquaculture land or not could be divided into two different groups based on willing to experiment with new farming technologies, capital for the farming costs, fish disease problem and distance to road. The model achieved a high accuracy rate, demonstrating that discriminant analysis is a useful tool for analyzing land use changes and the relationships between various LUCC driving forces.
Subjects
土地利
用變遷
個體施為
驅動因子
判別分析
水產養殖
Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC)
agent-based
driving force
discriminant analysis
aquaculture
Type
thesis
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