Uncertainty Analysis of WECS Energy Output Estimation: A Case Study of Jhongtun Power Station
Date Issued
2011
Date
2011
Author(s)
Shih, Chia-Han
Abstract
Estimation of the wind power generation requires the knowledge of velocity distribution fitting, velocity prediction, and power output prediction. There parameters are treated as a specific value, but there exist various uncertainties in modeling and data acquisition. The traditional approach may not fully express the actual energy output. As a result, this study presents an integrated assessment of the uncertainties in energy output estimation using the Monte-Carlo approach to provide a comprehensive understanding of the variance in the energy output estimation. We choose Jhongtun wind power station and Penghu weather station as our study case to investigate the effect of various time scales, namely, whole-year period, strong-wind period, weak-wind period, and monthly period on the estimated energy output accuracy. It is more reasonable to incorporate the uncertainty of mean velocity, which is not considered by Kwon’s work (2010). According to our results, the prediction will converge for simulations with over 100,000 trials. whole-year period, strong-wind period and weak-wind period have relatively low uncertainties, separate monthly periods of strong wind have relatively high ones, and separate monthly periods of weak wind have the highest ones.
Subjects
Uncertainty Analysis
Wind Power
Energy Output Estimation
Probability Model
Monte-Carlo Simulation
Type
thesis
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