The Comparison Analysis of Time Series Models And Grey Forecast－An Example of the Production Value Forecast of Bicycle Industry in Taiwan
Date Issued
2008
Date
2008
Author(s)
Chang, Tsung-Kai
Abstract
Taiwan is the kingdom of bicycles. During the period of the Two-Crisis of Petroleum, the export product value of the Taiwan bicycle grew rapidly. When facing the increasing petroleum price after 2004, the Taiwan bicycle’s export product value seems to have a chance to brush a new history record. The development of the Taiwan bicycle industry can be distinguish four periods：the resembling period, the export extension period, the transforming period, and the internationalize period. The product way from traditional Original Equipment Manufacturer（OEM）transited to Original Design Manufacturer（ODM）and finally to Individual Bicycle Dealer（IBD）. Facing the competition among the international countries and the gradually increasing wage cost, the Taiwan bicycle industry needs not only to weed through the old to bring forth the new; but also to forecast the shock whether it is positive or negative. This research aims to compare the performance of linear time series forecasting model and non-linear grey forecasting model GM（1,1）to obtain the optima forecasting model and to predict the bicycle export product value. Under the assumption of the time series, the series needs to meet stationary status or by difference to be, then applying to forecast the next time. However, the Grey forecasting model seems to simplify in process, which needs only four observations to be done. The bicycle export product value data excerpt from the Bureau of Foreign Trade and the Taiwan Vehicle Craft Union published on the web, from January 1997 to September 2007. After selected by Mean Absolute Percentage Error（MAPE）、THEIL U and Root Mean Squared Percentage Error（RMSPE）methods, we use the best model to forecast the product value after October 2007. This research finds the SARIMA has the best performance no matter under MAPE、THEIL U or RMSPE test, because of the relative low expect error on above, and we use the model to forecast the future value after October 2007.
Subjects
bicycle export product value
the characteristic of the Taiwan bicycle industry
product value forecasting
time series analysis
Grey forecasting model
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Type
thesis
File(s)![Thumbnail Image]()
Loading...
Name
ntu-97-R93341043-1.pdf
Size
23.53 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum
(MD5):c96c716152868a18230408d05efe630f