Analysis of the Lee Teng-hui Administration's Management of the 1996 Missile Crisis

Abstract This year(2016) is the 20th anniversary of the 1996 Missile Crisis. The military exercise by the Liberation Army of People’s Republic of China, known as the ""United 96"" exercise that year seriously affected Taiwan’s national security. The underlying cause of the crisis is that China was trying to seize Taiwan’s sovereignty. In response to this crisis, the Lee Teng-hui administration at the time had established standard operating procedures for crisis management. The National Security Council (NSC), acting as the principal institution for this mechanism, gathered all intelligence and determined that the purpose of creating this crisis by China was to influence Taiwan''s first presidential election in March 1996. Faced with such existential threat, the staff at NSC proposed 12 scenarios with crisis management plans including response protocols, communications, media planning, resource mobilization et al, to ensure the ultimate goal of having the election proceeded on schedule. At the end, the crisis was controlled and resolved. Through in-depth interviews with the crisis management team at the time, this study concludes that the main responses to the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis are :( I ) establishing a crisis management organization; (II) determining the nature of the crisis; (III) identifying the objectives of crisis management; (IV) developing and executing the crisis management plans; (V) controlling and managing the crisis. This thesis proposes additional reviews and revisions, including :(a) setting up a dedicated crisis management mechanism; (b) establishing standard operating procedures; (c) establishing a communication mechanism involving ruling and opposition parties. We believe the proposed revisions can establish a crisis management pattern that is more compatible with the unique situation and political system in Taiwan.