Conditional probability prediction model for landslides induced by Chi-Chi earthquake
Date Issued
2005
Date
2005
Author(s)
Yang, Ling-Shiang
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
Taiwan locates in the circum-pacific seismic zone with frequent earthquake activities, which could induce the hazardous landslides. An effective landslide prediction map could provide an important reference for policymaking for land use regulation and drafting of mitigation measures of potential disastrous area.
The geographic information system database of the research area was constructed by colleting geology and geomorphology data and the landslide scars triggered by Chi-Chi earthquake of research area. Furthermore, the Conditional Probability method was utilized to construct landslide potential model and prediction model.
Based on the results of landslide potential analysis, the best factor combination for landslide prediction analysis was determined. Verification of results from the landslide potential and prediction analysis was performed using landslide scars of research area, and success rate of analysis could be quantified.
The results of landslide prediction analysis indicate that using the aspect, slope and geology factors, could properly build up a distinguishing landslide prediction model. The landslide scars in the landslide prediction map coincide well with the high landslide probability area. Furthermore, the results of comparisons also prove the suitability of verification method used in this research.
Subjects
地震引致山崩
條件式機率
山崩預測
山崩潛勢
landslides induced by earthquake
Conditional Probability
Geographic Information System (GIS)
landslide prediction
landslide potential
SDGs
Type
thesis
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