Simulated contribution of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation to the west Eurasia cooling in 1998-2013
Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Journal Volume
17
Journal Issue
9
Date Issued
2022-09
Author(s)
Abstract
Large ensemble simulations with six atmospheric general circulation models involved are utilized to verify the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) impacts on the trend of Eurasian winter surface air temperatures (SAT) during 1998-2013, a period characterized by the prominent Eurasia cooling (EC). In our simulations, IPO brings a cooling trend over west-central Eurasia in 1998-2013, about a quarter of the observed EC in that area. The cooling is associated with the phase transition of the IPO to a strong negative. However, the standard deviation of the area-averaged SAT trends in the west EC region among ensembles, driven by internal variability intrinsic due to the atmosphere and land, is more than three times the isolated IPO impacts, which can shadow the modulation of the IPO on the west Eurasia winter climate.
Subjects
interdecadal Pacific oscillation; Eurasia cooling; internal variability; WARMING HIATUS; SEA-ICE; CLIMATE; VARIABILITY; MODELS; TRENDS
SDGs
Publisher
IOP Publishing Ltd
Type
journal article