The Phenomenon Analysis of Process Demand Portfolio Based on Process Progression.
Date Issued
2009
Date
2009
Author(s)
Chou, Wen-Chi
Abstract
Technological progression is one of the most important critical factors in many high-tech industries. In semiconductor area, ASP (Average Selling Price) is eroded faster than other industries because of short product lifecycle. To maintain normal profit, the most widespread method that the firms used is scaling. Firms can get more productivity per wafer by enter more advance technology node, and bring economic of scale. But the design cost is exponential increasing with the technology progression. In this situation, the new technology node adoption rate is slower than the past. In this research, I attempt to analysis the gap between technology R&D and demand by technology node demand portfolio, and forecast the possible phenomenon base on design cost trend changing. In the first, I designed the wafer productivity index and used it to describe the industry characteristic during 1996 to 2007. Then, I used the change point analysis to test the timing of the change. The third, the efficient frontier of the IC design house was modeled and used to forecast the future. By the process, I found that after 2002, the gap between technology R&D and demand is increasing every year from below 1.5 generations to more than 2 generations. After 2007, the gap will maintain the temporary stability because of the slowing in technology progression. But the gap will finally expand because of the exponential increasing design cost.
Subjects
scaling
technology node demand portfolio
wafer productivity
trend change
Type
thesis
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