Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results
Journal
Nature Communications
Journal Volume
16
Journal Issue
1
ISSN
2041-1723
Date Issued
2025-01-26
Author(s)
Yao, Yi
Ducharne, Agnès
Cook, Benjamin I.
De Hertog, Steven J.
Aas, Kjetil Schanke
Arboleda-Obando, Pedro F.
Buzan, Jonathan
Colin, Jeanne
Costantini, Maya
Decharme, Bertrand
Lawrence, David M.
Lawrence, Peter
Leung, L. Ruby
Devaraju, Narayanappa
Wieder, William R.
Wu, Ren-Jie
Zhou, Tian
Jägermeyr, Jonas
McDermid, Sonali
Pokhrel, Yadu
Elling, Maxwell
Hanasaki, Naota
Muñoz, Paul
Nazarenko, Larissa S.
Otta, Kedar
Satoh, Yusuke
Yokohata, Tokuta
Jin, Lei
Wang, Xuhui
Mishra, Vimal
Ghosh, Subimal
Thiery, Wim
Abstract
Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that irrigation expansion causes a rapid increase in irrigation water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times less likely). However, due to the irrigation-induced increase in air humidity, the cooling effect of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress is less pronounced or even reversed, depending on the heat stress metric. In summary, this study indicates that irrigation deployment is not an efficient adaptation measure to escalating human heat stress under climate change, calling for carefully dealing with the increased exposure of local people to moist-heat stress.
Subjects
adaptation
air temperature
climate change
cooling
environmental stress
extreme event
heat shock
irrigation system
range expansion
relative humidity
Article
biogeochemistry
exposure
heat stress
humidity
irrigation (agriculture)
moisture
precipitation
simulation
structural model
article
climate
human
hydropower
nonhuman
water
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Type
journal article