Fire Allied Risk Evaluation and Improvement Technology Appliance
Date Issued
2006
Date
2006
Author(s)
Chang, Ching-Chin
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
Performance-based fire safety design has become a hot topic recently, so many researches study in the dynamic simulation analysis, but the result only solves the evaluation during the projected design stage. Furthermore we know that there exists a difference between dynamic simulation and practical fire testing, where the major reasons including those dynamic simulations set many assumptions such as fire compartments not being damaged, combustibles not disappearing and active fire protection devices effective etc., result in not fitting to the fire loss investigation. The research tries to discuss a whole quantitative assessment from the view of risk management, which meanwhile covers engineering of dynamic simulation, probabilistic model and deterministic model of static analysis.
For the fire risk quantitative assessment, it would be divided into three parts: (1) Fire allied risk evaluation and grading, analyzing the related system applied in the top units of reinsurances, insurances and brokers worldwide to develop a comprehensive score including risk factors by weighting and “AND/OR” function between risk factors. After 5 years of application practically in industrial complex, the result gets good performance in underwriting profit, fire loss cases and loss ratio control. (2) Expected fire loss assessment, analyzing famous fire safety assessment system in different countries and choosing FiRECAMTM system of Canada, considering engineering model and probability model. Meanwhile the research verifies the capability of the system by means of the risk assessment report and claim report from insurance company. (3) Maximum possible loss, MPL. Risk is correlated by loss frequency and severity, so MPL maybe damages a company to fall away, especially for exposure of explosion fire. The research emphasizes the philosophy and appliance of MPL and furthermore utilizes the EXTOOL package of Swiss Re. in the assessment of a petrochemical plant and a power plant. Finally, combining the solutions of risk quantitative evaluation to discuss the main causes of fire in Taiwan region, Electrical fire, find the good improvement by prediction maintenance, applying infrared thermo-graphic inspection to analyze the possible ignition source, and run a good loss control policy. To sum up, the research interlinks risk financing and risk control from the risk quantitative assessment through three systems and prediction maintenance appliance to enhance the real fire safety.
Subjects
火災風險
風險控制
風險理財
風險評級
風險基礎檢測
Fire Risk
Risk Control
Risk Financing
Risk Grading
RBI
Type
thesis
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