The Hierarchy Bayesian Dynamic Regression Model
Date Issued
2005
Date
2005
Author(s)
Chung, Chi-Lei
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
The main idea of this thesis is to build a Hierarchy Bayesian dynamic regression model to analyze consumer price sensitivity by using the tuna scanner data from Chicago Jewel Food Store Co. and further to afford retailer marketing strategy, and to examine the Dickson’s competitive rationality theory.
According to the issue mentioned above, this thesis first analyzes the retailer’s pricing strategy and how to change the price structure and consumer’s price sensitivity. When retailers make pricing decision, they might set the ceiling price base on demand of consumption, and the bottom-line price by production cost. Others, the heterogeneity in consumer’s response to the changes of price structure would affect the retailer’s adjustment of price strategy.
Besides, the change of absolute price would affect the change of market share and performs time-varying mode. On the basis of Dickson’s competitive rationality theory, this thesis affords a dynamic interaction between supply (retailer’s pricing strategy) and demand (consumer’s reaction). Through the Hierarchy Bayesian dynamic regression model adding some influences factors, this thesis try to predict the price elasticity and to prove the dynamic changes of consumer’s elasticity.
Finally, this thesis found that the price elasticity would change with time, and there are some relevance between the change of relative price and absolute price that also affect consumer’s price elasticity. Further, retailer’s price would change when consumer’s price elasticity change. There is cyclic interaction between retailer price strategy and consumer reaction.
The implication of this study for retailer is followed: successful retailers should figure out the changes of purchasing behavior and to recognize the purchasing style. The price elasticity could be the foundation to make the pricing strategy and further marketing strategy, for example, price discrimination strategy, chosen brands etc
Subjects
層級貝氏模型
動態迴歸
定價策略
Hierarchy Bayesian model
dynamic regression
pricing strategy
Type
thesis
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