The role of imported cases and favorable meteorological conditions in the onset of dengue epidemics
Journal
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Journal Volume
4
Journal Issue
8
Date Issued
2010
Author(s)
Abstract
Background: Travelers who acquire dengue infection are often routes for virus transmission to other regions. Nevertheless, the interplay between infected travelers, climate, vectors, and indigenous dengue incidence remains unclear. The role of foreign-origin cases on local dengue epidemics thus has been largely neglected by research. This study investigated the effect of both imported dengue and local meteorological factors on the occurrence of indigenous dengue in Taiwan. Methods and Principal Findings: Using logistic and Poisson regression models, we analyzed bi-weekly, laboratoryconfirmed dengue cases at their onset dates of illness from 1998 to 2007 to identify correlations between indigenous dengue and imported dengue cases (in the context of local meteorological factors) across different time lags. Our results revealed that the occurrence of indigenous dengue was significantly correlated with temporally-lagged cases of imported dengue (2-14 weeks), higher temperatures (6-14 weeks), and lower relative humidity (6-20 weeks). In addition, imported and indigenous dengue cases had a significant quantitative relationship in the onset of local epidemics. However, this relationship became less significant once indigenous epidemics progressed past the initial stage. Conclusions: These findings imply that imported dengue cases are able to initiate indigenous epidemics when appropriate weather conditions are present. Early detection and case management of imported cases through rapid diagnosis may avert large-scale epidemics of dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever. The deployment of an early-warning surveillance system, with the capacity to integrate meteorological data, will be an invaluable tool for successful prevention and control of dengue, particularly in non-endemic countries. ? 2010 Shang et al.
SDGs
Other Subjects
article; case management; controlled study; correlation analysis; dengue; early diagnosis; epidemic; high temperature; human; humidity; import disease; infection control; infection prevention; logistic regression analysis; meteorological phenomena; Taiwan; weather; adolescent; adult; aged; animal; climate; female; incidence; male; middle aged; statistical model; Taiwan; temperature; travel; Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Animals; Climate; Dengue; Female; Humans; Humidity; Incidence; Male; Middle Aged; Models, Statistical; Taiwan; Temperature; Travel; Young Adult
Type
journal article