Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.
Journal
Environment international
Journal Volume
187
Start Page
108712
ISSN
1873-6750
Date Issued
2024-05
Author(s)
Wen, Bo
Wu, Yao
Guo, Yuming
Gasparrini, Antonio
Tong, Shilu
Overcenco, Ala
Urban, Aleš
Schneider, Alexandra
Entezari, Alireza
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
Zanobetti, Antonella
Analitis, Antonis
Zeka, Ariana
Tobias, Aurelio
Nunes, Baltazar
Alahmad, Barrak
Armstrong, Ben
Forsberg, Bertil
Pan, Shih-Chun
Íñiguez, Carmen
Ameling, Caroline
Valencia, César De la Cruz
Åström, Christofer
Houthuijs, Danny
Van Dung, Do
Royé, Dominic
Indermitte, Ene
Lavigne, Eric
Mayvaneh, Fatemeh
Acquaotta, Fiorella
de'Donato, Francesca
Rao, Shilpa
Sera, Francesco
Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
Kan, Haidong
Orru, Hans
Kim, Ho
Holobaca, Iulian-Horia
Kyselý, Jan
Madureira, Joana
Schwartz, Joel
Jaakkola, Jouni J K
Katsouyanni, Klea
Diaz, Magali Hurtado
Ragettli, Martina S
Hashizume, Masahiro
Pascal, Mathilde
Coélho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
Ortega, Nicolás Valdés
Ryti, Niilo
Scovronick, Noah
Michelozzi, Paola
Matus Correa, Patricia
Goodman, Patrick
Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
Raz, Raanan
Abrutzky, Rosana
Osorio, Samuel
Dang, Tran Ngoc
Colistro, Valentina
Huber, Veronika
Lee, Whanhee
Seposo, Xerxes
Honda, Yasushi
Kim, Yoonhee
Bell, Michelle L
Li, Shanshan
Abstract
Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects.
Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.
Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates.
Results: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type.
Conclusions: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.
Subjects
Inter-day
Intra-day
Mortality
Temperature variability
Publisher
Elsevier
Type
journal article