臺灣地區遊憩需求預測之分析
Date Issued
2004
Date
2004
Author(s)
王心怡
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
The eleven forecasting models are examined empirically using monthly visitors data in Northeast Coast National Scenic Area,Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area, Alishan National Scenic Area,Taroko National Park Area, Kenting National Park,National Palace Museum,Taipei Zoo,National Museum of Natural Scenic.The eleven forecasting models are NaiveⅠModel,NaiveⅡModel,Simple Line Regression Model,Quadratic Trend Model,Exponential Curve Model,Sine Wave Nonlinear Regression Model,AR Model,MA Model,ARIMA Model,SARIMA Model,Holt-Winters Model.
For considering the factor of SARS, the fitted models are used to forecast the visitors from January 2002-June 2003 and January 2002- December 2002.The forecast result of the two term was found that the latter have the lowest MAPE and Theil U for each of the eight spots,especially National Palace Museum,Taipei Zoo,National Museum of Natural Scenic.We can get a conclusion that SARS have great influence for the forecastability of the model.The forecast accuracy of the models was found to differ with different terms,SARIMA Model was the best predictor.
Subjects
泰爾不等係數
迴歸
遊憩
預測
旅遊
平均絕對百分比誤差
時間數列
regression
Theil inequality coefficient
forecasting
time series
mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)
travel recreation
Type
thesis
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