Dynamic Model for Campaign Strategy: The Case of Candidate Ying-jeou Ma in Taiwan’s 2008 Presidential Election
Date Issued
2010
Date
2010
Author(s)
Fan, Ling-Jia
Abstract
This research tries to construct a “Dynamic Model” for campaign strategy by integrating theories in political science, communications, marketing, and social networking. Candidates in intense elections have to campaign by analyzing battleground situation, formulating strategies, executing air bombardment and ground war tactics, launch combat in order to impact their voters. These attempts affect the voters, restructure the battleground, and in return, help the candidates to reformulate new strategies. These campaigns strategies follow an ongoing circular motion that only comes to a halt on the election day.
The study employed qualitative research methods to show that the “Dynamic Model” can indeed formulate the process of campaign decisions during the 2008 presidential election in Taiwan. The research is based on interviews with campaign managers and staffs of candidate Ma and numerous first-hand observations as a major newspaper correspondent to the election. With statistical data collected from election polls and data of election results, the study tries to exemplify the corresponding effects from the air bombardment and ground war tactics.
The analysis shows that both “Young Cycling” and “Long Stay” campaigns only sustained voters’ support but failed to expand significantly. Strategies made in “One-China Market” and “Return to the U.N. Referendum” were effective in confusing DPP’s strategies and keeping Ma from discredit. Incidents in “The Green Card Controversy” and “Blue Legislators Intrusion into Rival Campaign Office” were proved to have only short-term impact and did not crumble Ma’s support. In brief, from July 2007 to February 2008, net campaign effect of Ma’s air bombardment tactics were estimated to have a 7 percentage point gain.
In terms of ground war tactics, Ma’s strategies not only effectively secure supports from pan-blue areas but also significantly ambush pan-green territories. Ma’s final lead in light-green and break-even areas turns out to be the key factor of his landslide victory.
Subjects
campaign strategy
candidate positioning
issue building
market segmentation
air bombardment tactics
ground war tactics
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