應用多重碎形理論於雨量預測之研究
Other Title
Applications of Multifractals to Rainfall Forecast
Date Issued
2005
Abstract
The theory of Multifratals has been evolved successfully during the last two decades. Many research reports have indicated that time-series in nature exhibits multifractal behaviors. This means that the statistical self-similarity of the time-series is related to the measured scales. From the mathematical point of view, many researchers believe that Multifractals has the ability to synthesize and forecast high resolution time series of rainfalls. However, the related research still only focuses its efforts on analyzing the structure of rainfall rather than on forecasting or synthesizing it. Therefore, this research proposes an approach for forecasting high resolution rainfall data through combining the theory of Nonlinear Dynamics and Multifractals. The proposed approach estimates the corresponding multifractal spectra from the historical rainfall data, and then determines the best values for the parameters of the corresponding dynamic systems based on these multifractal spectra. This research, based the proposed approach, also designs a rainfall forecast framework, intergrating the Multifractals with the concept of Konwledge Base, and then implements a prototype system from this framework. Finally, through applying the prototype system on forecasting the rainfall in a given rain event, this research conducts a feasibility and accuracy study on the proposed approach and framework.
Subjects
碎形
多重碎形
非線性動力學
雨量預測
fractals
multifractals
nonlinear dynamics
forecast
Type
thesis
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