Tourism gentrification and rentable housing vacancy dynamics: A mediation analysis of Kyoto Prefecture, Japan
Journal
Cities
Journal Volume
168
Start Page
106406
ISSN
0264-2751
Date Issued
2026-01
Author(s)
Abstract
This study examines the impact of tourism gentrification on changes in rentable housing vacancies in Kyoto Prefecture, Japan. This study suggests the short- and long-term rental vacant houses (SLTR) as a unified indicator of rental housing availability. Using a combination of descriptive statistics and mediation-based stepwise regression across three time intervals (2008–2013, 2013–2018, and 2008–2018), we assess whether tourism gentrification affects SLTR directly or through housing-market dynamics. Reportedly, tourism gentrification—operationalized via tourism intensity indicators—notably alters land use and reshapes housing supply. The findings support four hypotheses: (H1) tourism gentrification is present in Kyoto Prefecture; (H2) tourism gentrification influences the SLTR change ratio; (H3) land prices, rather than rents, mediate this relationship; and (H4) the effects vary across temporal phases. In particular, tourism gentrification-related pressures suppress land price growth in highly touristic areas, indirectly contributing to rising rentable house vacancies. Bootstrap validation confirms the relevance of land price mediation over the long term. These findings highlight the need to reframe tourism gentrification as a process of sociospatial transformation and housing-market decoupling, offering conceptual insights for tourism-impacted cities globally.
Subjects
Kyoto Prefecture
Land prices
Mediation analysis
Short and long-term rental housing
Urban housing-market
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Type
journal article