A Study of Nursing Manpower Planning in Taiwan

本研究目的為探討未來十年台灣護理人力全國之供需，評估護理人員之角色及功能， 及探討護理人力培育之問題。研究方法包括文件分析法、情境分析法、問卷調查及焦 點團體座談。資料收集的時間為2002年4-7月。對未來十年護理人力「需求」的推估 指標為：(l)每十萬人口護理人員數；(2)醫師與護理人員比及；(3)護理時數。推估 時除了採用現況(2001年)的指標，並採用以德菲法調查獲得專家在考慮未來變化趨勢 後，所預測的低、中、高三種指標。結果發現2012年時以現況指標推估的需求量約為 8.7-9.5萬人，專家預測的低標約需12萬人，中標約需14-16萬人，高標約需16-21萬 人。人力「供給」方面也是以維持現況及考慮未來變化兩種情形分別推估。結果發現 如果供給方式維持現況，到2012年供給量約為16.5萬人，對大部份指標預估之需求量 都過多；如果供給因未來人口及教育趨勢變化，則供給量約為13.7萬人，對現況指標 及專家預測之低標所推估的需求量仍過多，但就專家預測之中標或高標需求量而言則 有不足之虞。有關護理人員角色功能，臨床及社區護理人員皆強調護理人員對服務對 象作評估、判斷、規劃及執行護理的角色功能。目前台灣護理人力培育之問題是護理 教育體制複雜，及護理人員之教育程度仍持提升。 The purpose of the study was to project the niational demand and supply of nuirses manpower in Taiwan in next decade, assess nurses' roles and functions, and explore the problems of nurse's education. Documentation analysis, scenarios analysis, questionnaire survey and focus group discussion were employed as research method. Data collection was performed during April to July ill 2002. The indicators used for estimating nurse manpower demand were (1) ratio of misses to population (2) ratio of nurses to physicians (3) nursing hours per patient day. Current ratio (in 2001) as well as the lox, median, and high estimates predicted by experts through delphi study for these indicators were utilized for demaiid projection Results showed that in 2012. nurse manpower demand estimated by current ratio will be 87 to 95 thousands, by experts' lox estimate 120 thousands, by median estimate 140- 160 thousands, by high estimate 160-210 thousands. Nurse manpower supply. was estimated in two situations: (l)supply will keep the same as current supply;( 2) supply ill be influenced by future change. According to results, if current supply is maintained. nurse manpower supply will be 165 thousands in 2012. which is more than the manpower estimated by most of demand indicators. If supply changes because of future population and education trends, nurse manpower supply in 2012 will be 137 thousands, which is more than the manpower estimated by current ratios and experts' lox estimate of demand. but less than that estimated by experts' median and high estimates of demand. Both hospital and community health misses all agreed that the most important roles and functions of nurses are client assessment. Situation judgment, nursing care planning and implementation. The problems of nurses' supply in Taiwan are : nursing education system is too complicated and nurses' educational level needs to be raised.