Applications of top-down and bottom-up land use and rainfall-runoff models to simulate land use changes and hydrology- a case study of Paochiao watershed
Date Issued
2008
Date
2008
Author(s)
Wang, Yen-Tan
Abstract
Models are important tools for quantifying approaches in the research of land-use and environmental impacts. Humans can realize the mechanisms and trends of land-use changes and their effects on hydrological system for the watershed planning and management. Land-use models based on their simulating mechanisms can be divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches, but these two kinds of models are seldom applied together. Distributed hydrological models can simulate and quantify land-use changes and its effects on hydrology. This study attempts to combine two land-use models of different simulating mechanisms, and simulates the spatial distribution of land-use changes. This study also simulates and evaluates land-use changes and their effects on hydrology by HEC-HMS model. his study used four historical SPOT images for 1990, 1993, 1998 and 2000 for the Paochiao watershed next to Taipei metropolis. The SLEUTH model is a bottom-up model that simulated land-use area and spatial distribution from 2001-2025. CLUE-S model is a spatial statistical model that simulated the same period in the study area. The rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS and storm events in 2000 simulated and evaluated land-use changes and their influences on rainfall-runoff and compared to the difference of runoff for the same event in 2000 and 2025. Calculating and analyzing the landscape metrics of land-use spatial changes and trends can evaluate the suitability of different mechanism land-use models.he results revealed that SLEUTH model can simulate the trend of land-use demand, and the CLUE-S model can simulate the land-use patterns that fit to the historical trend. The consequences of land-use changes showed that the fragmentation of the landscape patterns tend to be stable after 2015 and spatial heterogeneity of land-use changes gradually become small. The land-use simulated results revealed that the built-up area and impervious surface increase. The hydrological components are affected by urban sprawl; specifically, the peak discharge, total runoff volume increased, and the time to peak early arrived. Comparing to the antecedent moisture condition II and III, the antecedent moisture condition III is more sensitive than the type II in reflecting the magnitude of the hydrology. This study integrates two land-use models and a rainfall-runoff model. Moreover, it applies to land-use change and its effects on rainfall-runoff in the Paochiao watershed. Therefore, this integrated approach can provide to the watershed management and planning as a reference in the future.
Subjects
land-use modeling
SLEUTH model
CLUE-S model
landscape metrics
rainfall-runoff model
watershed land-use management
SDGs
Type
thesis
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