An empirical study of the demand for railway station: geographically weighted regression approach
Date Issued
2011
Date
2011
Author(s)
Yang, Hsiao-Po
Abstract
Due to the opening of Taiwan high speed railway, conventional railway （Taiwan Railway Administration, TRA）faced an impact in the middle and long-term trips. TRA has change their operational policy under the TRA Rapid-Transit-Systematize Project in three goals: increasing the density of stations, increasing the frequency of trains and consolidation the types and tickets of train. The issue we concerned in this project today is how to increase the density of station reasonable by doing railway demand analysis and forecasting.
There are several models use the origin-destination （OD） data in railway demand analysis and forecasting, but government may concern about the usage of new stations rather than OD trips. We aim to build a model by using global regression and geographically weighted regression （GWR）, and analyze the demand of TRA stations in the main lines. Then we will have discussion with regional aspects with the result of GWR, and we expect that GWR can improve the global regression model by consider the spatial features.
The result of global regression and GWR in R-square value is 0.68 and 0.80, and we can discuss different effects in different regions by the map result of GWR. We also found that both models have negative effect in factor population. Past studies never use GWR in analysis or forecasting railway demand in Taiwan, in this study we will try to use both models in railway analysis and trips forecasting in 7 new stations in Kaohsiung Project. And the result of forecasting by GWR is closer to reality than global regression model.
Subjects
Railway Demand
Geographically Weighted Regression
Railway Station
TRA Rapid-Transit-Systematize Project
Type
thesis
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