Establishment of a Predictive Model for Aquaculture Land Use Change an Agent-based Approach
Resource
地理學報, 47, 001-018
Journal
地理學報
Journal Issue
47
Pages
001-018
Date Issued
2007-03
Date
2007-03
Author(s)
Hsieh, C.H.
Tsai, B.W.
Chang, K.T.
Abstract
Land-use/land-cover change (LUCC), the consequence of the interactions between humans and the environment, signifies the living pattern of human activities and the decision-making process involved in such activities. At the local level, land-use decisions are usually restricted and made by land agents. To evaluate the effects of various land-use driving forces and to establish a predictive model for LUCC, this project used Ilan's aquaculture as a case study. For analysis of survey data, we employed chi-square test and t-test to find driving forces and discriminant analysis to establish a predictive model. The results of chi-square test and t-test showed significant differences in 9 variables, which were possible driving forces for the abandonment of aquaculture. These variables could distinguish abandoned farmer and unabandoned farmer efficiently. The results of discriminant analysis showed that factors determining whether land agents abandoned their aquaculture land or not could be divided into two different groups based on past abandonment experience, capital for the farming costs, willing to experiment with new farming technologies and distance to road. The model achieved a high accuracy rate, demonstrating that discriminant analysis is a useful tool for analyzing land use changes and the relationships between various LUCC driving forces.
Subjects
土地利用變遷
個體施?
驅動因子
判別分析
水產養殖
Land Use/Cover Change LUCC
agent-based
driving forces
discriminant analysis
aquaculture
SDGs
Type
journal article
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