Analyzing the Most Suitable Number of Balls in a Lottery
Date Issued
2009
Date
2009
Author(s)
Lih, Jeng-Yang
Abstract
This paper extracts expected value, accumulated first prize money and sales from Chinatrust and Taipei Fubon lottery database to run a simple regression. This paper then adds in cost concerns and uses the regression results to predict expected sales under different number of balls while concluding the optimal number of balls a lottery company should play with if it aims to maximize its profits. nder current prize money distribution, the number of balls for Chinatrust, Taipei Fubon, and the mixture of two companies to maximize profits all points to 35 or 36. If the current prize money distribution is changed, this paper views the changes in three aspects, which are the change of distributable prize money, change of sixth prize and seventh prize money and the change of first prize money. For one, this paper found out when the amount of distributable money increased, expected sales and number of balls both decreased. Secondly, the higher the sixth and seventh prize money amount were the lower it was for expected sales while the number of balls rose only when the prize money were higher than before. Thirdly, when first prize money accounted for a bigger portion in distributable prize money, expected sales declined but the number of balls remained at 35 or 36. s for the new super lotto, based on the model conducted this paper concludes for super lotto to maximize its profits it needs to change its number of balls to 20.
Subjects
Lottery
Skewness
Expected Value
Type
thesis
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