Predicting Cement Firm Defaults with Accounting, Industrial and Macroeconomics Variables
Date Issued
2008
Date
2008
Author(s)
Chieh , Chen
Abstract
This thesis considers several variables whick are picked from upstream , downstream , cement industry and macroeconimics dimension to predict the default rate of Taiwan cement industry . In chapter 3 , I’ll examine the correlation between dependent and independent variables by using linear regression model and piecewise regression model.he result reveals that cement quantity imported divided by total cement quantity demanded , cement firms’ gross margin , construction firms’ gross margin , population increasing rate , house price index , and approbation of the building floor area have significant relevance with default rate of Taiwan Cement industry.fter conducting out-sample testing , compare with trational prediction model, it shows that prediction error is tiny .Therefore , default rate prediction model which is built by account-based, industrial , and macroeconomics variables is beneficial to enhance prediction efficiency.
Subjects
Cement industry
Industry Credit Risk
Type
thesis
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ntu-97-R95724017-1.pdf
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