A 40-year follow-up study of liver cancer risk in Taiwan:An age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression analysis
Journal
ISEE Conference Abstracts
Journal Volume
2022
Journal Issue
1
ISSN
1078-0475
Date Issued
2022-09-18
Author(s)
Abstract
Objectives Malignant neoplasm of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality in Taiwan. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer incidence in Taiwan. Methods We tracked the incidence rate of malignant neoplasm of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts (ICD-10 code C22) from 1980 to 2019, with data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. We then calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) for liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer based on the world standard population in 2000. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the trend change, and age-period-cohort models were used to investigate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer incidence. Results From 1980 to 2019, there were 278,363 newly reported cases of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer, for a crude incidence rate of 32.17 cases per 100,000 person-years. The ASIR exhibited a significant increase from 1980 to 2000 (APC = 7.4%, 95% CI: 6.9‒7.8%, P = <0.001), maintained at the plateau from 2000 to 2009, and then declined. The risk of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer in the population peaked in 2005-2010. The population born between 1965 and 1975 had the highest risk of developing liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer compared to the other cohort. The cancer risk dropped after hepatitis B vaccination program since 1980s. Conclusions Hepatitis B vaccination program may decrease the risk of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer in Taiwan. Appropriate vaccination program is advised for countries with similar exposures.
Event(s)
ISEE 2022: 34th Annual Conference of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology
Publisher
Environmental Health Perspectives
Type
conference paper