Development of Grey Prediction Model for Freeway Travel Time
Date Issued
2005
Date
2005
Author(s)
Chen, Kuan-Chu
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
In Taiwan, Traffic on freeway is very heavy and often congested. For deploying of Advance Traveler Information System, a prediction model to provide drivers with adequate predicted travel time is essential. Because of the variant traffic compositions of heavy vehicles and intercity buses, the prediction of travel time becomes more complicated and difficult to get a reliable predicted travel time. The variance of travel time is high and the predicted result of travel time should be revised in a short interval.
Therefore, this study applies grey system theory including grey prediction model and grey relational analysis to test its performance on different traffic flow conditions. Additional, this study proposes some revised methods of grey travel time prediction model because there are still some shortcomings in predicting the highly fluctuated data series. According to the predicted value of freeway travel time, this study extends to develop the model of prediction of minutes, prediction of hours, prediction of days and discusses the development of a travel time prediction broadcasting system including TV News, Advance Traveler Information System, vehicle computers, CMS, and Website.
This study proves that the grey theory for prediction just needs not only fewer data but shorter time to built models than the other methods. Its performance is very good to apply to the real-time prediction in the future.
Subjects
灰色系統理論
灰預測模式
旅行時間預測
Grey System Theory
Grey Prediction Model
Travel Time Prediction
Type
thesis
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