Can we reliably reconstruct the mid-Pliocene Warm Period with sparse data and uncertain models?
Journal
Climate of the Past
Journal Volume
20
Journal Issue
9
Start Page
1989
End Page
1999
ISSN
1814-9332
Date Issued
2024-09-12
Author(s)
Abstract
We present a reconstruction of the surface climate of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), specifically Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) KM5c or 3.205 Ma. We combine the ensemble of climate model simulations, which contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), with compilations of proxy data analyses of sea surface temperature (SST). The different data sets we considered are all sparse with high uncertainty, and the best estimate of annual global mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly varies from 2.1 up to 4.8 °C depending on the data source. We argue that the latest PlioVAR analysis of alkenone data is likely more reliable than other data sets we consider, and using this data set yields an SAT anomaly of 3.9±1.1 °C, with a value of 2.8±0.9 °C for SST (all uncertainties are quoted at 1 standard deviation). However, depending on the application, it may be advisable to consider the broader range arising from the various data sets to account for structural uncertainty. The regional-scale information in the reconstruction may not be reliable as it is largely based on the patterns simulated by the models.
Subjects
climate modeling
Pliocene
proxy climate record
reconstruction
sea surface temperature
uncertainty analysis
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Type
journal article