Intraseasonal predictability of Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon and its interdecadal variability
Journal
Journal of Climate
Journal Volume
25
Journal Issue
5
Pages
1773-1778
Date Issued
2012
Author(s)
Chang, C.-P.
Abstract
Current skill in the seasonal prediction of the Asian monsoon falls rapidly north of 40°N, where the Siberian high (SH) is a prominent manifestation of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Variations in the SH are closely related to winter weather over a large latitudinal span from northern Asia to the equator. Here it is shown that during the three recent decades the SH had an intraseasonal variation that tended to be seasonally synchronized, which produced an out-of-phase relationship between November and December/January. This implies a special intraseasonal predictability that did not exist in the two previous decades. If this relationship continues, the EAWM will be the only known major circulation system whose intensity can be predicted to reverse fromthe previousmonth. It is hypothesized that this predictability is related to the reduced frequency of blocking events during the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). While this suggests the predictability may diminish if the AO phase is reversed, it may become more prevalent in the future if the prediction of more frequent positive AO-like patterns in a warming world forced by greenhouse gases is borne out. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.
Other Subjects
Arctic Oscillation; Inter-decadal variability; Intraseasonal variability; Monsoons; Seasonal forecasting; Winter/cool season; Climate change; Greenhouse gases; Atmospheric thermodynamics; Arctic Oscillation; decadal variation; global warming; greenhouse gas; monsoon; prediction; seasonal variation; weather forecasting; winter; Siberia
Type
journal article