行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告:應用長期氣候預報於生態與水資源預警與風險管理系統
Date Issued
2004
2004-07-31
Date
2004
2004-07-31
Author(s)
DOI
922313B002102
Abstract
conservation and
water resources have been drawn many
attentions. According to the study by Tung
et al., global warming may result in more
often extreme hydrology, i.e. more frequent
flood and drought. Climate change causing
extraordinary climate may further influence
biosystems, ecosystems, and hydrosystems,
etc.. It desires to establish mitigation
strategies associated with an early warning
system to response the impacts. This study
develops a framework of early warning and
risk management systems for Formosa
Salmon and drought by using seasonal
climate forecasts, which major tasks also
include downscaling seasonal climate
forecasts and develop more flexible
reservoir operational rules. In this study, the
method of bias correction is introduced as
an example to downscale climate forecasts
to a local station. A water temperature and a
population model based on previous study
are used to predict possible future impacts
on Formosa Salmon. A case study shows
two sets of operational rules are optimized
by the genetic algorithm for drought and
non-drought periods. The framework of
early warning and risk management systems
has been established for ecosystem and
drought. Each component has also been
tested. In future, the early warning systems
will link to seasonal climate forecasts and
include more sophisticate risk management
strategies.
Subjects
Climate Change
Early Warning
Extraordinary Climate
Risk Management
SDGs
Publisher
臺北市：國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所
Type
report
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