On the Relations of Online Candidate Popularity and Offline Election Outcome

　With the rapid development of the Internet and the information technology, there are more and more online social platforms and online news platforms. In addition, the users are able to get the latest information and news by a simple and quick way. Moreover, there are an increasing number of Internet users to share or to publish personal information and statements instantly via online social platform. At present, not only the commercial corporation but also the campaign team of election starts to focus on the online social platform and the engagement with the Internet users in order to get their support. However, each user’s attitude of using online platforms is different, so the study is to propose an effective way and find out the relations of online candidate popularity and offline election outcome. 　In the study, we analyze data of online platform based on the method of time series. Besides, we also consider the factor of sentiment and apply sentiment analysis. We expect that we can forecast the election issues in an effective way and evaluate the relations of online candidate popularity and offline election outcome for reference in the future. 　We find out there is a correspondence between the share of online popularity and the share of votes in the elections with the method of time series. What’s more, there is an effect of improving our result by considering the factor of sentiment. These findings will be helpful for the election campaign team to have a good understanding of the issues in a fast and lower-cost way.