Scale correction, verification, and warming attribution of summer rainfall extremes over Japan for the d4PDF climate ensemble
Journal
Hydrological Research Letters
Journal Volume
19
Journal Issue
4
Start Page
239
End Page
246
ISSN
1882-3416
Date Issued
2025
Author(s)
Abstract
Historical climatological upper percentile rainfall over Japan from the Database for Policy Decision-making for Future climate changes (d4PDF) was compared with that from 121 rain-gauges for the 1952–2010 period. Percentiles calculated excluding or including values below 1 mm, “wet-extremes” and “all-extremes” were compared. The 5 km d4PDF hourly wet (all) extremes matched rain-gauges at 72% (45%) of the locations, but for daily extremes this was 39% (33%). Further comparison with radar-AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System) was made for hourly extremes in the 2006–2021 period. Wet (all) extremes matched for 84% (79%) of rain-gauges, and 80% (51%) also matched radar-AMeDAS at the same locations. Exceedance probabilities were calculated for historical and 4 K warmer climates using thresholds based on a non-warming climate. Historically, hourly (daily) extremes were more frequent over most of (eastern) Japan. In a 4 K warmer climate, daily extremes would become more frequent over most of Japan. Rainfall from 5 km d4PDF at hourly and daily resolutions are provided in prefecture and river basin subsets, with compressed sizes of each below 1 Gigabyte.
Subjects
attribution
d4PDF
extremes
Japan
rainfall
verification
Publisher
Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources
Type
journal article