ECOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ASBESTOS-RELATED DISEASES AND HISTORICAL ASBESTOS CONSUMPTION: AN INTERNATIONAL ANALYSIS
Resource
LANCET v.369 n.9564 pp.844-849
Journal
LANCET
Journal Volume
v.369
Journal Issue
n.9564
Pages
844-849
Date Issued
2007
Date
2007
Author(s)
Lin, Ro-Ting
Takahashi, Ken
Karjalainen, Antti
Hoshuyama, Tsutomu
Wilson, Donald
Kameda, Takashi
Chan, Chang-Chuan
Abstract
Background The potential for a global epidemic of asbestos-
related diseases is a growing concern. Our aim was to assess
the ecological association between national death rates
from diseases associated with asbestos and historical
consumption of asbestos. Methods We calculated, for all
countries with data, yearly age-adjusted mortality rates by
sex (deaths per million population per year) for each
disease associated with asbestos (pleural, peritoneal, and
all mesothelioma, and asbestosis) in 2000-04 and mean per
head asbestos consumption (kg per person per year) in 1960-
69. We regressed death rates for the specified diseases
against historical asbestos consumption, weighted by the
size of sex-specific national populations. Findings
Historical asbestos consumption was a significant predictor
of death for all mesothelioma in both sexes (adjusted R-2=0.
74, p<0.0001, 2.4-fold [95% Cl 2.0-2.9] mortality increase
was predicted per unit consumption increase for men; 0.58, p
<0.0001, and 1.6-fold [1.4-1.9] mortality increase was
predicted for women); for pleural mesothelioma in men (0.29,
p=0.0015, 1.8-fold [1.3-2.5]); for peritoneal mesothelioma
in both sexes (0.54, p<0.0001, 2.2-fold [1.6-2.9] for men, 0
.35, p=0.0008, and 1.4-fold for women [1.2-1.6]); and for
asbestosis in men (0.79, p<0.0001, 2.7-fold [2.2-3.4]).
Linear regression lines consistently had intercepts near
zero. Interpretation Within the constraints of an ecological
study, clear and plausible associations were shown between
deaths from the studied diseases and historical asbestos
consumption, especially for all mesothelioma in both sexes
and asbestosis in men. Our data strongly support the
recommendation that all countries should move towards
eliminating use of asbestos.
Subjects
PLEURAL MESOTHELIOMA
GREAT-BRITAIN
LUNG-CANCER
MORTALITY
TRENDS
COHORT
SDGs
Type
journal article