Global climate response to anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects: Present day and year 2100
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
Journal Volume
115
Journal Issue
D12
Date Issued
2010-06
Author(s)
Abstract
Aerosol indirect effects (AIE) are a principal source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. The present study investigates the equilibrium response of the climate system to present-day and future AIE using the general circulation model (GCM), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) III. A diagnostic formulation correlating cloud droplet number concentration (N c) with concentrations of aerosol soluble ions is developed as a basis for the calculation. Explicit dependence on Nc is introduced in the treatments of liquid-phase stratiform clouds in GISS III. The model is able to reproduce the general patterns of present-day cloud frequency, droplet size, and radiative balance observed by CloudSat, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. For perturbations of Nc from preindustrial to present day, a net AIE forcing of-1.67 W m-2 is estimated, with a global mean surface cooling of 1.12 K, precipitation reduction of 3.36%, a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and a hydrological sensitivity of +3.00% K-1. For estimated perturbations of Nc from present day to year 2100, a net AIE forcing of-0.58 W m-2, a surface cooling of 0.47 K, and a decrease in precipitation of 1.7% are predicted. Sensitivity calculations show that the assumption of a background minimum Nc value has more significant effects on AIE forcing in the future than on that in present day. When AIE-related processes are included in the GCM, a decrease in stratiform precipitation is predicted over future greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced warming scenario, as opposed to the predicted increase when only GHG and aerosol direct effects are considered. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.
Subjects
Atmospheric aerosols; Climatology; Clouds; Drop formation; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Radiometers; Aerosol indirect effect; Anthropogenic aerosols; Climate system; Cloud droplet number; CloudSat; Droplet sizes; Earth radiation budget experiments; Future climate; General circulation model; General patterns; Global climates; Intertropical convergence zone; Liquid Phase; Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer; Pre-industrial; Radiative balance; Soluble ions; Stratiform clouds; Stratiform precipitation; Surface cooling; Climate models; aerosol; anthropogenic source; climate prediction; cloud droplet; CloudSat; droplet; general circulation model; global climate; global warming; greenhouse gas; intertropical convergence zone; perturbation; radiative forcing; remote sensing; stratiform cloud
SDGs
Type
journal article