The Duration of Prime Minister in Semi-Presidentialism： The Effect of Presidential Power and Composition of Parliament
Date Issued
2012
Date
2012
Author(s)
Lee, Yi-Fang
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to explore the factors which affect the duration of the prime minister. Research of the prime minister duration in semi-presidentialism has been quite fruitful in the past but we will be analyzing this topic by studying how different factors affecting prime minister duration are correlated rather than independent. We will first study how the different aspects of presidential power affect the duration of the prime minister and how their effects are not independent. Next, we will study how different parliament compositions lead to presidential involvement in the administration and thus affects the duration as well. We use the Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the different factors that impact the prime minister duration as well as the competing risk model to analyze different events. The range of time used is from 1945 to 2010 and includes democratic semi-presidentialism countries from around the world.
The research shows that different aspects of president power have interactive effects and that parliament composition and presidential power also have interactive effect. First, in the different aspect of presidential power section, there are significant interactive effects of the president power to dismiss prime minister and the president power to unilateral appoint prime minister. Second, there are significant interactive effects of coalition government and the president power to dismiss prime minister. Furthermore, there are significant interactive effects of whether the president and the prime minister are of the same party and the proportion of president party seats. At last, there are significant interactive effects of whether the president and the prime minister are of the same party and the proportion of prime minister party seats.
In summary, to explore the factors of the prime minister duration, it is necessary not only to focus on the impact of individual variables, but also take the interaction of different variables into account.
Subjects
Semi-presidentialism
duration of the prime minister
presidential power
composition of parliament
interaction
event history analysis
Cox proportional hazard model
Type
thesis
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