Balancing ecosystem services and climate resilience: A case study of the Gaoping River Basin, Taiwan
Journal
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators
Journal Volume
27
Start Page
100745
ISSN
2665-9727
Date Issued
2025-09
Author(s)
Lin, Guan-Zhou
Abstract
As global populations rise, the demand for ecosystem provisioning services increases, even as climate change increasingly disrupts their supply and regulation. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on water-related ecosystem services (WES) in the Gaoping River Basin using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios projected for the end of the century. The hydrological and diffuse pollution parameters were calibrated using SWAT-CUP (2011–2017) to better reflect localized land use and environmental conditions. Under future climate conditions, water provision is expected to increase; however, surface runoff is likely to dominate during the wet season, exacerbating both soil erosion and nutrient loading. The R4 region, characterized by intensive agricultural and urban land use, is projected to experience the greatest decline in WES, with nearly 70 % of subwatersheds falling below an index score of 0.5, and approximately 10 % falling below 0.3. High concentrations of agricultural and urban land use further intensify flood risks and impair water quality. Addressing these compound pressures calls for adaptive watershed management strategies. The spatiotemporal WES assessment applied here offers critical guidance for sustainable land-use planning and supports long-term ecosystem resilience in a tropical mountainous basin under climate change. • An index-based framework was developed to assess water-related ecosystem services (WES) in the Gaoping River Basin. • SWAT model simulations evaluated WES under two end-of-century climate scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. • WES sustainability was assessed through indicators of water provision, soil conservation, and flood regulation. • Priority conservation zones were identified, mainly in midstream and downstream areas impacted by climate change. • Adaptive strategies are proposed to enhance WES resilience under combined pressures of climate change and human activity.
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Type
journal article