The Impacts of Crude Oil Price and Monetary Policy on Taiwan Economy: A Macro-Econometric Model Approach
Date Issued
2009
Date
2009
Author(s)
Tsai, Hui-Hung
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to build Taiwan’s macroeconometric modeling, and using the model to conduct scenario analysis. We generate the prediction of the economy from the third quarter in 2008 to the forth quarter in 2011. Moreover, we conduct the scenario analysis concerning the variation of international circumstances, such as the fluctuation of oil price per barrel as well as analyzing the impact of changes in monetary policy.cenario analysis is divided into two parts (1)Crude oil price analysis: We can still find that oil price change still have considerable influence on the domestic economy.(2) Monetary policy: The central bank may lower the discount rate once and for all or adjust the discount rate successively. As in the current approach taken by the central bank, the positive impact of successive adjustment on the economy is smaller, but the effect of price inflation is relatively small.
Subjects
Crude Oil Price
Scenario Analysis
Monetary Policy
Macro-Econometric Model
Type
thesis
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