The Conditions of Neo-Functional Hypothesis About the Spillover Effect: The Comparative Analysis between European Integration (1986-2009) and the Cross-Strait Relations (1987-2011)

Integration theory has been widely used in recent cross-strait relations studies, particularly since Taiwan-Mainland China interactions began in the early 1990s. Most researchers favor the neo-functionalism; they try to propose the functional integration model to resolve the political dispute between Taiwan and Mainland China. Also, they usually quote the “spillover hypothesis” to estimate and predict the future development of cross-strait relations.

The neo-functionalists not only dedicate to provide a more satisfactory explanation to the European integration process but also try to construct an analytic model about the comparative studies of regional integration. Exactly, the main contents and core hypotheses of neo-functionalism are based on “spillover effect－spillover conditions－politicization”, that so called “three steps integration process”. However, the perspectives of neo-functionalism have been criticized. These authors did not clarify the relationships between spillover conditions; nor did they distinguish the priorities among them. Moreover, they neglected the importance of the external factors in regional integration process. As yet we have too few articles in Chinese to be able to discuss the contents of neo-functionalism in depth. Furthermore, the Chinese researchers also failed to offer new approach or analytic structure to revise or improve the perspectives of neo-functionalism.

Based on the above mentioned reflections and criticisms, this article tries to comprehensively retrospect the contents of neo-functionalism and assesses its strengths and weaknesses. Besides, this article also dedicates to improve and complete the analytic structure of neo-functionalism and then establishes a general principle of the “spillover hypothesis” through the comparative studies between European integration and the cross-strait relations. In this article, I suggest a pattern of eight variables (spillover conditions), includes Structural conditions: 1) size of the units, 2) political systems, 3) threats to military and national security; Process conditions: 4) rate of transactions, 5) attitudes and concerns of political elites, 6) identifications and public opinions of civil societies; External factors: 7) international system and great events, 8) roles and attitudes of hegemonic state.

In general, there are three major academic contributions in this article. First, this article not only clarifies the relationships between the spillover conditions and European integration, cross-strait relations but also spells out the relationships between these variables. Second, it distinguishes the priorities and weights among these spillover conditions. Third, this article establishes a general principle of the “spillover hypothesis” as well. In the end, I expect these three research findings could complete the comparative approach about the regional integration of neo-functionalism.