An Investigation on the Supply and Demand of Taiwan Geriatricians with System Dynamics Approach
Date Issued
2014
Date
2014
Author(s)
Chan, Wai-Hou
Abstract
In an era of increasing geriatric population, Taiwan''s 65- and-over population is on course to go from being an“aging society”in 1994, 7% of population are 65 years old or older, to an “aged society”in which 14% or more of its population are 65 years old in 2018. It is estimated that Taiwan would become a “super-aged society, 20% of the population 65 years old or over, by 2026. The geriatric medical healthcare is mandatory. However, whether the changing of geriatric workforce is compatible with the increasing of geriatric healthcare, there is few relevant systematic or narrative review currently.
Data of population and geriatric workforce were obtained from Taiwan gerontology and geriatric society, Taiwan medical association. Gathering data and references cited, we developed system dynamics modeling for Taiwan geriatric workforce and depicted the causal-loop diagram using Vensim software. The relevant influencing factors of demand and supply side of geriatric workforce are analysed qualitatively. According to the American Geriatrics Society’s Geriatrics workforce policy studies center (GWPS), it is projected that approximately 30% of the 65 plus patient population will need to be cared for by a geriatrician and that each geriatrician can care for a patient panel of 700 older adults. Based on these assumption applied in this research, 1,155 geriatrician are needed. As on 2013, there were 828 certified geriatricians currently. Each geriatrician would care for 976 older adults. We summarize the key factors influencing the relative attractiveness to be a geriatrician, we depicted each factor’s reinforcing causal feedback loop or balancing causal feedback loop respectively. As a comprehensive thinking, we try to put every causal feedback loop together to have a discussion. Relevant solutions are suggested in this study in reference to policy maker and decision maker. We hope that this study is contributed to current geriatric healthcare environment.
Subjects
系統動態學
老年醫學專科醫師
老年醫學專科醫師人力
Type
thesis
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